A year ago, Aliko Dangote’s ambitious refinery project was still struggling to turn its enormous investment into consistent profits. Nine months into 2026, the numbers tell a very different story.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery reported a net profit of $4.73 billion for the first nine months of the year, reversing a loss of $117.2 million recorded over the same period in 2025.

Revenue climbed 144% to $22.48 billion, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) surged to $5.52 billion from $627.6 million a year earlier. The improvement points to more than rising sales. The refinery appears to be getting better at converting its operating scale into profit, with its EBITDA margin rising from 6.83% to 24.56%.

The turnaround is also showing up in the company’s cash position. Cash generated from operations rose to $3.68 billion, compared with $364.7 million in the corresponding period last year. By the end of September, cash balances had reached $6.69 billion, and the refinery had moved from $1.73 billion in net debt to $650.8 million in net cash. For a project of this scale, that shift matters, it gives the business more financial room to manage its operations and pursue its next phase of growth.

Chief executive David Bird attributed the stronger performance to higher throughput, improved operational reliability and better refining margins. In simple terms, the refinery is processing more crude, operating more reliably and benefiting from more favourable margins. Those gains suggest the facility is moving beyond its initial ramp-up phase towards sustained commercial operations, although maintaining this level of profitability will depend on market conditions, feedstock availability and operating performance.

The results arrive as Dangote Refinery pushes ahead with a $1.6 billion share offering, giving investors an opportunity to buy into one of Africa’s most ambitious industrial ventures. The offer covers 4.1 billion shares at ₦525 each, implying an equity valuation of roughly $47 billion. The deadline has been extended to October 27, 2026, while Dangote has said investor demand exceeds the number of shares on offer. Official subscription figures, however, have not yet been published.

Dangote’s ambitions extend well beyond the current results. The refinery plans to invest a further $14.3 billion to double its capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029. That expansion could strengthen its position in global energy markets, but significant questions remain around crude supply, import-licensing disputes and whether today’s margins can be sustained. For Dangote, the challenge is no longer simply proving that a refinery of this scale can operate. It is showing that it can remain profitable, finance its expansion and deliver lasting value for the investors being invited to share in its future.